Selectivity becomes a success factor

Market environment

The global macroeconomic environment remains fundamentally stable and continues to support risk investments - albeit with significantly increased complexity. The major economies are growing moderately, while inflation is gradually normalizing.

At the same time, geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are causing rising energy prices and increased uncertainty. This has led to a noticeable reassessment of interest rate expectations. While interest rate cuts were previously expected, the markets are now pricing in interest rate hikes again in some cases. However, this development is likely to be exaggerated, as no sustained inflationary pressure is yet apparent. Accordingly, monetary policy is likely to remain cautious for the time being - with increased market volatility.

At company level, the starting position remains solid. Profit development is robust and is supported by structural trends such as digitalization and artificial intelligence in particular, which should enable significant productivity gains in the long term.

At the same time, the market structure is changing: yields are increasingly diverging and performance is being driven more by individual sectors and companies. The high concentration - particularly in the US market - increases vulnerability to company-specific risks and underlines the importance of broad diversification.

Investment focus: quality and regional differentiation

• Focus on quality:
  Focus on companies with stable margins, strong balance sheets and sustainable cash flows, particularly in the US large-cap segment.
• Take advantage of regional opportunities:
  Attractive valuations can be found primarily in China, Brazil and Switzerland, with different, complementary return drivers.
• Be selective in emerging markets:
  Focus on equity markets with structural growth (e.g. Asia) and commodity exposure (Brazil),
• Avoid interest rate-sensitive segments:
  Small caps remain under pressure due to higher financing costs and weaker fundamentals.
• Weigh Europe cautiously in the short term:
  Profit-taking and increased volatility are likely to persist.

Chefinvest assessment

From Chefinvest's perspective, the analysis confirms a constructive but currently more challenging market environment. In the short term, the risks outweigh the opportunities due to the weaker momentum and geopolitical uncertainties. The increased sensitivity to energy prices and interest rate expectations suggests that the probability of losses is currently higher than the opportunities for gains.

However, the picture remains balanced over the next twelve months. Solid growth, stable corporate earnings and structural trends such as artificial intelligence speak for an overall balanced, but clearly selective equity positioning.

Markets with comparatively low valuations such as China, Brazil and Switzerland as well as US large caps (with stable margins and sustainable cash flows) appear particularly attractive, while Europe is likely to be characterized by increased volatility in the short term.

‍

Rico Albericci, CEFA

_{Source: MarketMap, Chefinvest, UBS, WisdomTree, Citi Wealth, Deutsche Bank}

_{As of: 25.03.2026}