Switzerland
Attractive earnings, limited growth impetus
The environment continues to be characterized by moderate growth, low inflation and increased external uncertainty. The Swiss equity market is maintaining its role as a stable market with an attractive dividend yield. We see cyclical upside potential in medium-sized companies in particular.
The Swiss economy is likely to continue to grow at a below-average rate of around 1.0% in 2026, after the economy stabilized at the end of 2025. The main negative factors are the war in the Middle East, rising energy prices and increased global uncertainty, which are dampening both the global economy and export-oriented sectors.
Dampened exports and declining consumption despite moderate inflation
Inflation is being revised slightly upwards by SECO due to higher energy prices, but remains low overall. At the same time, weaker foreign demand and the strong Swiss franc are slowing down the export economy and could have a negative impact on investment activity, while private consumption is losing some momentum.
Moderate recovery from 2027 - labor market under temporary pressure
A moderate recovery is expected for 2027 (SECO forecast: 1.7% growth), supported by a gradual recovery in the European economy, particularly in Germany. The labour market is likely to weaken slightly before the situation stabilizes again in 2027.
SECO economic forecasts
GDP 2026 1.00%
Inflation 2026 0.40%
Swiss National Bank policy rate 0.00%
Sources: Chefinvest, ZKB, SECO
As at: 25.03.2026