China
Structural change with selective opportunities
China is no longer a broad growth market, but a politically controlled, selective investment universe. Added value is now only created through targeted allocation to strategic key industries, while large parts of the market are structurally losing their appeal. We still consider technology stocks to be interesting.
China is undergoing an ongoing transformation process from investment-driven to qualitative growth. GDP growth of around 4.5-5.0% is forecast for 2026. Although this is below the historical level, it can still be considered solid in a global comparison. Growth has recently been strongly export-driven, while domestic consumption has remained structurally weak. Although current indicators point to a stabilization, there is also an increase in external risks.
Real estate crisis and weak domestic consumption slow down growth momentum
The biggest negative factors continue to be domestic: the significantly shrunken real estate sector is losing its role as a growth driver and is weighing on both households and local public finances. At the same time, a high savings rate - driven by uncertainty and low social security - is leading to persistently weak consumption. As a result, China currently lacks a sustainable domestic growth driver.
Strategic realignment: technology and industry as new growth drivers
In contrast, there is a clear strategic realignment: state-prioritized sectors such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, electromobility and renewable energies continue to gain in importance. The aim is to strengthen technological independence and increase industrial value creation. For investors, the opportunity profile is thus shifting away from the broad market and towards clearly defined areas supported by industrial policy.
Oil crisis as a short-term burden - China's structural resilience as a buffer
The current oil crisis in Iran is weighing on the economy in the short term. Rising energy prices are having a negative impact on production and consumption and are affecting the export-oriented economy due to weaker global demand. China is characterized by a number of factors that make it appear significantly more robust than many other economies in a comparable situation. These include diversification of the economy, the holding of extensive oil reserves and a leading role in electrification with renewable energy sources.
IMF forecasts
GDP 2026 4.50%
Inflation 2026 0.70%
Shibor 1.52%
As of: 25.03.2026