USA
Resilient U.S. Economy
The economic outlook remains positive, and corporate earnings reports are encouraging. Rising corporate spending on capital goods is a sign of confidence. Meanwhile, higher inflation rates and the expected shift toward a more restrictive monetary policy by central banks are creating headwinds. In addition, geopolitical risks surrounding the U.S.–Iran agreement remain present until a definitive agreement is reached. The increased adoption of AI in business processes will continue to have a positive impact on corporate earnings growth.
According to preliminary estimates, the Flash S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index for the service and manufacturing sectors) rose by 0.7 points to 52.2 points in June 2026 compared with the previous month. This 6-month leading indicator thus signals stronger economic growth again compared to previous months. As a result of the (preliminary) agreement between the U.S. and Iran to end the war, the transport of goods through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal in the coming weeks, reducing related uncertainties (supply and inflation). According to its April 2026 forecast, the IMF expects the U.S. economy to grow by 2.30% in 2026 and 2.10% in 2027.
The labor market is picking up again
In May, 172,000 nonfarm jobs were created, indicating a resilient labor market. The unemployment rate remained unchanged from the previous month at a relatively low 4.30%.
Monetary policy is becoming more restrictive
At its meeting on June 16– –17 June 2026, the Fed kept the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% despite rising inflationary pressures. The decision was unanimous. Under the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, more cautious communication (forward guidance, such as the dot plot projections of meeting participants’ interest rate expectations) is expected in the future. The market now anticipates not a cut, but a 0.25% increase in the federal funds rate by the end of the year. U.S. inflation rose to 4.20% in May (+0.40% from the previous month), and core inflation (excluding energy and food prices) rose to 2.90% (+0.10%).
Very strong earnings reports – falling valuations
Earnings reports for the S&P 500 companies clearly exceeded forecasts with an impressive 28.00% year-over-year increase. Expectations for the second-quarter 2026 earnings reports are also well above the historical average, with growth projected at 22.00%. The current stock market valuation is thus supported by solid earnings growth. With an S&P 500 price-to-earnings ratio of 20.4 (based on analysts’ earnings estimates for the next 12 months), the market valuation has declined in recent months, but it remains above the 5-year average of 20.1 and the 10-year average of 18.9.
GDP 2026 (IMF): +2.30%
Inflation 2026 (IMF): +3.20%
Fed Funds Rate: +3.50–3.75%
Sources: Trading Economics, FuW, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Statista, IMF, FOMC
As of: June 24, 2026