Between Monetary Policy and Geopolitical Uncertainties

The major currency pairs continue to be driven by interest rate differentials, growth prospects, and geopolitical uncertainties. While the U.S. dollar benefits from the robust U.S. economy and the ongoing interest rate advantage, the Swiss franc remains in demand as a safe-haven currency. Although the euro is showing initial signs of stabilization, it will require a more pronounced economic recovery in Europe to achieve a sustained appreciation. Overall, current conditions point to a structurally strong U.S. dollar and Swiss franc, although increased volatility in the foreign exchange markets is still to be expected.

EUR/USD (June 22, 2026: 1.15)

The euro has recently seen only a limited recovery against the U.S. dollar. While the European economy is showing initial signs of stabilization, the U.S. dollar continues to benefit from the comparatively robust U.S. economy and higher interest rates in the United States. The Federal Reserve is also signaling a cautious stance on further interest rate cuts, which maintains the dollar’s interest rate advantage over the euro for the time being.

For investors, the dollar thus remains attractive despite its high valuation. At the same time, a slowdown in U.S. growth or a looser monetary policy by the Fed later this year could lead to a gradual weakening of the dollar.

Conclusion (12 months): The dollar is likely to remain structurally supported; sustained euro strength is only to be expected with a clear growth recovery in Europe—overall, a slightly USD-positive bias with increased volatility.

EUR/CHF (June 22, 2026: 0.93)

The Swiss franc maintains its role as a classic safe-haven currency. Uncertainties related to geopolitical conflicts, as well as Switzerland’s continued solid economic and fiscal situation, are supporting the franc against the euro.

At the same time, the Swiss National Bank has completed its cycle of interest rate cuts. This reduces interest rate-related pressure on the franc. Although the euro remains relatively stable against the franc, significant appreciation potential is currently limited.

Conclusion (12 months): The franc remains structurally strong; EUR/CHF is likely to remain within a narrow range, with clear periods of CHF appreciation during times of stress.

USD/CHF (June 22, 2026: 0.81)

The USD/CHF currency pair brings together two of the most sought-after currencies of the moment. On the one hand, the U.S. dollar benefits from higher yields and the strength of the U.S. economy; on the other hand, the Swiss franc remains in demand due to its safe-haven characteristics.

Accordingly, the currency pair is caught between interest rate differentials and risk aversion. In the short term, higher U.S. interest rates favor the dollar, while in the medium to long term, the franc’s structural strength is likely to come more into focus.

Conclusion (12 months): A slightly USD-positive underlying trend due to the interest rate differential, but with recurring periods of CHF strength—overall, a volatile sideways pattern with a slight advantage for the USD.

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Mimi Haas, Lic. rer.pol. HSG, M.A. in Banking and Finance HSG, Partner

_{Sources: MarketMap and Bloomberg
As of: June 22, 2026}