Oil
Oil prices remain volatile
We expect a continuing struggle between the U.S. and Iran over control of the Strait of Hormuz in the coming weeks, leading to continued reductions in oil shipments through this bottleneck and, as a result, a WTI oil price ranging from $85 to $105 per barrel.
The struggle over the Strait of Hormuz is causing oil prices to fluctuate. After the WTI oil price fell to $70 per barrel in July, it reached $105 per barrel in early September. It is currently hovering around $93 per barrel.
Surprisingly, the months-long stalemate in the Arabian Gulf (also known as the Persian Gulf) and the resulting reduction in oil shipments have not led to a supply shortage. This is partly because (1) some countries tapped into their strategic oil reserves, (2) alternative land routes (pipelines) were used as workarounds, and (3) oil shipments were carried out through the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian conditions or with an escort from the U.S. Navy.
The Americans are banking on Iran’s economy collapsing under the sanctions, while the Iranians are counting on high oil prices and rising inflation to cause the Republicans to suffer an electoral defeat in the midterm elections.
Sources: OPEC, FuW, MarketMap, International Energy Agency (IEA)
As of: September 29, 2026