Oil
The oil is starting to flow again
We expect a gradual easing of oil supply constraints and, as a result, a WTI oil price ranging from 65 to 75 USD per barrel.
As a result of the (provisional) U.S.-Iran agreement to end the war, the WTI oil price has fallen sharply to 73 USD per barrel. Just in time for the summer vacation-driven driving season in the U.S.
However, for the oil price to drop to its pre-war level of $60–$65 per barrel, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz must return to normal, which is expected to take 2 to 3 months.
The lifting of U.S. sanctions on oil shipments from Iran—scheduled to take effect 60 days after the U.S.-Iran agreement—will further increase supply and help prevent potential bottlenecks.
However, the geopolitical risks surrounding the (provisional) U.S.–Iran agreement—and thus the adequate supply of oil to the global economy—will remain until a definitive agreement is reached.
Sources: OPEC, FuW, MarketMap, International Energy Agency (IEA)
As of: June 24, 2026