We expect the problem in the Strait of Hormuz to be resolved soon and, as a result, WTI oil prices to ease to a range of USD 70 - 80 per barrel.
The WTI oil price rose to just under USD 120 per barrel at times due to the outbreak of the war between the USA/Israel and Iran three weeks ago and is currently back at USD 90 per barrel. This is increasingly unsettling consumers worldwide and driving up inflation. This has to do with the strait between Iran and the United Arab Emirates - the so-called Strait of Hormuz - and Iran's de facto blockade of it and bombardment of the oil and gas infrastructure of neighboring countries.
About 20% of the world's oil and gas supplies are shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. As Iran has threatened to attack oil and gas supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, shipping through the bottleneck has almost come to a standstill. Due to fears that this will lead to supply shortages, oil and gas prices have risen sharply.
Since the storage facilities were well filled before the war and due to the release of 400 million barrels per day from the strategic oil reserves of the 32 IEA member countries - coordinated by the International Energy Agency (IEA) - a shortage is not expected in the coming weeks. In addition, the previously sanctioned Russian oil has been temporarily declared acceptable again by the West.
Although the USA is now a net oil exporter, US President Trump has a strong interest in a quick solution to the problem due to the approaching mid-term congressional elections. Iran is also very interested in a deal regarding the Strait of Hormuz. After all, its oil loading center is located on the island of Kharg in the Persian Gulf, which is why its oil supplies must also be transported through this strait.
Sources: OPEC, FuW, MarketMap, International Energy Agency (IEA)
As at: 25.03.2026