The environment continues to be characterized by moderate growth, low inflation and increased external uncertainty. The Swiss equity market is maintaining its role as a stable market with an attractive dividend yield. We see cyclical upside potential in medium-sized companies in particular.
The Swiss economy is likely to continue to grow at a below-average rate of around 1.0% in 2026, after the economy stabilized at the end of 2025. The main negative factors are the war in the Middle East, rising energy prices and increased global uncertainty, which are dampening both the global economy and export-oriented sectors.
Inflation is being revised slightly upwards by SECO due to higher energy prices, but remains low overall. At the same time, weaker foreign demand and the strong Swiss franc are slowing down the export economy and could have a negative impact on investment activity, while private consumption is losing some momentum.
A moderate recovery is expected for 2027 (SECO forecast: 1.7% growth), supported by a gradual recovery in the European economy, particularly in Germany. The labour market is likely to weaken slightly before the situation stabilizes again in 2027.
SECO economic forecasts
GDP 2026 1.00%
Inflation 2026 0.40%
Swiss National Bank policy rate 0.00%
Sources: Chefinvest, ZKB, SECO
As at: 25.03.2026
In 2026, Europe will find itself in an environment of moderate growth with increased inflation and interest rate pressure. The markets appear fairly valued, meaning that selective investments with a focus on quality and pricing power remain crucial.
The growth prospects for Europe remain subdued. The European Central Bank expects GDP growth of just 0.9% in 2026, having recently revised its forecast downwards. At the same time, the labor market is likely to deteriorate slightly, with an expected unemployment rate of around 6.3%. Leading indicators such as the PMI continue to signal expansion, but without clear momentum.
On the interest rate front, a more restrictive stance is emerging: For the second quarter of 2026, the deposit rate is likely to stabilize at an elevated level or increase slightly, driven by persistent inflationary pressure, particularly in the energy sector.
European companies' earnings performance is likely to be moderate in 2026. Analysts expect earnings growth of around 3-5%, while sales are likely to increase only modestly due to a strong euro and global uncertainties.
Valuation-wise, European equities are currently trading at an elevated level (approx. 15x forward earnings). Europe is therefore no longer considered cheap, but remains attractive in relative terms - particularly compared to the US.
The euro is expected to appreciate in the medium term (EUR/USD approx. 1.20+), which could dampen export momentum.
Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, and trade policy uncertainties remain key risk factors. At the same time, rising fiscal spending in Europe is having a supportive effect.
GDP growth 2026 +1.4%
EU inflation 2026 + 2.5%
Current 3-month Euribor + 2.1%
Maria Albericci, Managing Partner
Sources: ECB, Bloomberg consensus, research by leading investment houses (as at Q1 2026)
As at: 23.03.2026
Despite the lack of a boost from monetary policy, the US economy is on course for growth. We expect a 'deal' in the Middle East and that the situation will calm down in the coming weeks, but that market volatility will remain high until then.
According to preliminary calculations, the Flash S&P Global US Composite PMI (purchasing managers' index for the services and manufacturing sectors) fell by 0.5 points to 51.4 points in March 2026 compared to the previous month. This indicator, which is 6 months ahead of the previous months, thus signals a clear slowdown but still economic growth. The war with Iran is increasingly unsettling economic players and higher oil prices are driving up inflation. For this reason, and not least because of the mid-term elections in the fall, US President Trump has a strong interest in ending the conflict soon. A deal will therefore be reached.
In February, 92,000 non-farm jobs were lost, which was clearly below expectations of a slight increase but could also have to do with the extreme weather conditions in February. In addition, jobs for the previous months (January and December) were also revised downwards, indicating a sharp cooling of the labor market. However, unemployment only rose by a moderate 0.1% month-on-month to 4.4% in February (which is the same figure as last December).
At its meeting on 17-18 March 2026, the Fed maintained its key interest rate (Fed Fund Rate) at 3.5-3.75% despite the weakening labor market. As the rise in oil prices due to the warlike events in the Persian Gulf is increasing inflationary pressure, but the specific impact cannot yet be assessed, the Fed is holding off on further rate cuts for the time being. The Fed is still assuming economic growth of 2.4 % for 2026. This is also due to the fact that the USA has become a net oil exporter in recent years thanks to shale oil production and is therefore benefiting from rising oil prices. The forecasts for core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) in 2026 have been adjusted only slightly upwards to 2.7%. In any case, the current situation poses a challenge for the Fed to find the right balance between its two mandates of price stability and full employment.
The earnings reports of the S&P 500 companies also exceeded forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2025 with an impressive year-on-year increase of 14.0%. Expectations for the earnings reports for Q1 2026 are also 12.5% growth. The current stock market valuation is therefore supported by solid earnings growth. With a price/earnings ratio for the S&P 500 of 20.3 (based on analysts' earnings estimates for the next 12 months), the market valuation has fallen further in recent months, but remains just above the 5-year average of 20.0 and 7.0% above the 10-year average of 18.9.
GDP 2026 (IMF): +2.40%
Inflation 2026 (IMF): +2.50%
Fed Fund Rate: +3.50-3.75%
Sources: Trading Economics, FuW, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Statista, IMF, FMOC
As of: 25.03.2026
China is no longer a broad growth market, but a politically controlled, selective investment universe. Added value is now only created through targeted allocation to strategic key industries, while large parts of the market are structurally losing their appeal. We still consider technology stocks to be interesting.
China is undergoing an ongoing transformation process from investment-driven to qualitative growth. GDP growth of around 4.5-5.0% is forecast for 2026. Although this is below the historical level, it can still be considered solid in a global comparison. Growth has recently been strongly export-driven, while domestic consumption has remained structurally weak. Although current indicators point to a stabilization, there is also an increase in external risks.
The biggest negative factors continue to be domestic: the significantly shrunken real estate sector is losing its role as a growth driver and is weighing on both households and local public finances. At the same time, a high savings rate - driven by uncertainty and low social security - is leading to persistently weak consumption. As a result, China currently lacks a sustainable domestic growth driver.
In contrast, there is a clear strategic realignment: state-prioritized sectors such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, electromobility and renewable energies continue to gain in importance. The aim is to strengthen technological independence and increase industrial value creation. For investors, the opportunity profile is thus shifting away from the broad market and towards clearly defined areas supported by industrial policy.
The current oil crisis in Iran is weighing on the economy in the short term. Rising energy prices are having a negative impact on production and consumption and are affecting the export-oriented economy due to weaker global demand. China is characterized by a number of factors that make it appear significantly more robust than many other economies in a comparable situation. These include diversification of the economy, the holding of extensive oil reserves and a leading role in electrification with renewable energy sources.
IMF forecasts
GDP 2026 4.50%
Inflation 2026 0.70%
Shibor 1.52%
As of: 25.03.2026
Japan continues to benefit from structural improvements and moderate inflation. In the short term, however, geopolitical risks - in particular rising energy prices - and monetary policy normalization are weighing on the economy. Overall, Japan remains strategically attractive, but tactically increased caution is advisable.
The Japanese economy remains in a phase of moderate, increasingly self-sustaining recovery. However, in addition to the well-known structural improvements, geopolitical developments - particularly in the Middle East - are coming more into focus.
Japan is currently benefiting from a stable domestic economy and robust global demand in the industrial and technology sectors. Inflation has established itself sustainably above the 2.0% mark, supported by rising wages and improved corporate pricing power. As a result, the long-standing deflationary pressure appears to have been increasingly overcome.
The Bank of Japan has taken a historic step by abandoning its negative interest rate policy. Despite initial adjustments, monetary policy remains expansive by international standards.
The challenge is to continue normalization without jeopardizing the fragile recovery - especially against the backdrop of external shocks.
As a country with few natural resources, Japan is highly dependent on energy imports. The escalation in the Middle East, in particular a possible or ongoing conflict with Iran, therefore represents a key risk. Rising oil and gas prices have a double negative impact on Japan:
In the short term, this may continue to support inflation, but at the same time it increases the risk that the BoJ will have to act in a difficult area of tension between supporting growth and combating inflation.
The yen remains weak and is currently providing support for export-oriented companies. At the same time, a weak yen is boosting imported inflation - particularly in the energy sector.
A possible appreciation in the wake of further monetary policy adjustments or global uncertainties remains a key influencing factor.
Independent of short-term risks, the structural investment case remains intact: Japanese companies continue to improve their capital allocation, increase their return on equity and focus more on shareholder value. Initiatives by the Tokyo Stock Exchange further reinforce this trend.
Expected GDP 2026 0.6%
Expected inflation 2026 1.7%
Japanese key interest rate 0.81%
Mimi Haas, Lic. rer.pol. HSG, M.A. in Banking and Finance HSG, Partner
Sources: OECD, Bank of Japan and IMF
As of: 25.03.2026
The capital markets are entering a phase of increasing differentiation: Broad market movements are becoming less important, while selection and structural trends are coming to the fore. In the short term, geopolitical risks and increased volatility dominate, while stable fundamentals provide support in the medium term. The internal global equity barometer CAIB currently signals a profit probability of 46.5% over one month and around 50% over twelve months, which confirms the cautious short-term perspective.
The global macroeconomic environment remains fundamentally stable and continues to support risk investments - albeit with significantly increased complexity. The major economies are growing moderately, while inflation is gradually normalizing.
At the same time, geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are causing rising energy prices and increased uncertainty. This has led to a noticeable reassessment of interest rate expectations. While interest rate cuts were previously expected, the markets are now pricing in interest rate hikes again in some cases. However, this development is likely to be exaggerated, as no sustained inflationary pressure is yet apparent. Accordingly, monetary policy is likely to remain cautious for the time being - with increased market volatility.
At company level, the starting position remains solid. Profit development is robust and is supported by structural trends such as digitalization and artificial intelligence in particular, which should enable significant productivity gains in the long term.
At the same time, the market structure is changing: yields are increasingly diverging and performance is being driven more by individual sectors and companies. The high concentration - particularly in the US market - increases vulnerability to company-specific risks and underlines the importance of broad diversification.
From Chefinvest's perspective, the analysis confirms a constructive but currently more challenging market environment. In the short term, the risks outweigh the opportunities due to the weaker momentum and geopolitical uncertainties. The increased sensitivity to energy prices and interest rate expectations suggests that the probability of losses is currently higher than the opportunities for gains.
However, the picture remains balanced over the next twelve months. Solid growth, stable corporate earnings and structural trends such as artificial intelligence speak for an overall balanced, but clearly selective equity positioning.
Markets with comparatively low valuations such as China, Brazil and Switzerland as well as US large caps (with stable margins and sustainable cash flows) appear particularly attractive, while Europe is likely to be characterized by increased volatility in the short term.
Source: MarketMap, Chefinvest, UBS, WisdomTree, Citi Wealth, Deutsche Bank
As of: 25.03.2026
In an environment of moderate monetary easing and declining inflation, bonds once again remain a key portfolio component. Government and investment grade bonds offer stability and reliable carry, while high yield and emerging markets should be used selectively to increase returns. Geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, remain to be observed, but do not currently represent a structural driver for the interest rate environment.
The performance of government bonds continues to be strongly influenced by monetary policy and inflation expectations. The speed of interest rate cuts and whether they will be continued at all depends on the data. Yields have recently stabilized after falling significantly in the run-up to the cuts. US Treasuries continue to offer attractive real yields and act as a key diversifier in an environment of heightened uncertainty. In Europe, core countries are benefiting from defensive capital flows, while peripheral bonds are selectively delivering additional yield but remain politically more vulnerable. Overall, duration is becoming more important again, particularly as a hedge against economic downturns.
Investment grade bonds remain robust. Companies have solid balance sheets and sufficient liquidity, which means that refinancing risk remains limited despite higher interest rates. Spreads remain tight and reflect the good fundamental situation, but offer only a limited additional buffer in the event of an economic slowdown. At the same time, all-in yields remain attractive, particularly in the European market. IG bonds therefore continue to play an important role as a stable yield provider in the portfolio and are suitable for a slightly higher duration in the current environment.
The situation in the high yield segment remains divided. While yields still appear attractive, spreads are historically narrow, which reduces the risk premium. The fundamental situation is solid in the upper rating segment, but pressure is increasing on weaker issuers, particularly in the CCC segment. Default rates are likely to rise slightly, but remain moderate by historical standards. The focus should therefore clearly be on higher-quality segments such as BB and selected B securities. Overall, high yield remains a tactical addition that should be used selectively and in a quality-oriented manner.
Emerging market bonds continue to benefit from attractive yield levels and, in some cases, advanced interest rate reduction cycles. The key question is whether the yield is sufficient compensation for the risk taken. At the moment, the answer is no.
Mimi Haas, Lic. rer.pol. HSG, M.A. in Banking and Finance HSG, Partner
Sources: MarketMap, Bloomberg and DWS
As of: 25.03.2025
The US dollar retains a slight structural advantage due to interest rate benefits. Sustained euro strength requires a clear economic recovery in Europe, while the Swiss franc tends to strengthen in uncertain phases. Overall, a volatile, sideways currency environment and a moderate USD-positive bias are to be expected.
Since January, the environment has shifted in favor of the dollar. The US economy remains surprisingly robust, while momentum in the eurozone has weakened. At the same time, the expectation of rapid interest rate cuts in the US has been pushed back, while the ECB is already in a clearer easing mode. This renewed widening of the interest rate differential has supported the dollar.
In addition, geopolitical tensions - particularly in the Middle East - are having a supportive effect on the USD as a global reserve currency. The euro, on the other hand, remains vulnerable to weak growth and political uncertainty within the eurozone.
The franc has once again proven to be a stable anchor since November. Despite interest rate cuts by the SNB, demand for the CHF remains high, which is due in particular to the increased geopolitical risks. At the same time, inflation in Switzerland remains significantly lower than in the eurozone, which gives the SNB room to maneuver but also supports the real value of the franc.
The euro continues to suffer from weaker growth and lower attractiveness in a global capital flow comparison. Interventions by the SNB remain a possible, but currently not dominant factor.
The pair has shown increased volatility since January. On the one hand, the continued tightening of US monetary policy is supporting the dollar, while on the other, geopolitical risks and market uncertainties regularly lead to inflows into the franc.
In addition, market participants are increasingly switching between the "interest rate story" and the "risk story", which reinforces short-term changes in direction. The SNB remains loose, while the Fed could remain restrictive for longer than originally expected.
Mimi Haas, Lic. rer.pol. HSG, M.A. in Banking and Finance HSG, Partner
Sources: MarketMap and Bloomberg
Status:25.03.2026
We expect the problem in the Strait of Hormuz to be resolved soon and, as a result, WTI oil prices to ease to a range of USD 70 - 80 per barrel.
The WTI oil price rose to just under USD 120 per barrel at times due to the outbreak of the war between the USA/Israel and Iran three weeks ago and is currently back at USD 90 per barrel. This is increasingly unsettling consumers worldwide and driving up inflation. This has to do with the strait between Iran and the United Arab Emirates - the so-called Strait of Hormuz - and Iran's de facto blockade of it and bombardment of the oil and gas infrastructure of neighboring countries.
About 20% of the world's oil and gas supplies are shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. As Iran has threatened to attack oil and gas supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, shipping through the bottleneck has almost come to a standstill. Due to fears that this will lead to supply shortages, oil and gas prices have risen sharply.
Since the storage facilities were well filled before the war and due to the release of 400 million barrels per day from the strategic oil reserves of the 32 IEA member countries - coordinated by the International Energy Agency (IEA) - a shortage is not expected in the coming weeks. In addition, the previously sanctioned Russian oil has been temporarily declared acceptable again by the West.
Although the USA is now a net oil exporter, US President Trump has a strong interest in a quick solution to the problem due to the approaching mid-term congressional elections. Iran is also very interested in a deal regarding the Strait of Hormuz. After all, its oil loading center is located on the island of Kharg in the Persian Gulf, which is why its oil supplies must also be transported through this strait.
Sources: OPEC, FuW, MarketMap, International Energy Agency (IEA)
As at: 25.03.2026
In the short term, increased volatility is to be expected for gold, driven by geopolitical developments and uncertainties in the interest rate outlook. In the medium term, however, the environment will remain supportive, meaning that gold will continue to play an important role as a diversifier in the portfolio.
Gold remains at an elevated level, but is currently showing a significant increase in volatility. This has been triggered in particular by the escalation in the Middle East, which has led to stronger price fluctuations in the short term.
A more complex macroeconomic environment is also emerging: the conflict increases the risk of rising energy prices and thus renewed inflationary pressure. This could limit or delay the scope for central banks to cut interest rates further, which would fundamentally weigh on gold. The precious metal is therefore currently caught between geopolitical support and potentially higher real interest rates.
Structural demand remains intact, however. Central banks continue to buy gold to diversify their reserves, and demand for safe investments also increases in phases of heightened uncertainty. Supply, on the other hand, responds only to a limited extent, which can amplify price movements.
Overall, market positioning has become more dynamic without already being overheated, which means that additional movements in both directions remain possible.
Mimi Haas, Lic. rer.pol. HSG, M.A. in Banking and Finance HSG, Partner
Sources: Degussa, Reuters and Financial Times.
As at: 25.03.2025
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